14
Apr
09

The Democratic Party is Finally Back

2009-04-13-alanaprilchart2

icon_digg7 In a Huffington Post article by Thomas B. Edsall, entitled “Permanent Democratic Majority: New Study Says Yes”, Mr. Edsall points out two areas of growth in the Democratic Party:

  • The increasing numbers of black and Hispanic voters
  • A decisive shift away from the Republican Party by the suburban and well-educated constituencies that once formed the backbone of the GOP

As quoted from the article:

In a March, 2009 51-page paper [PDF] “New Progressive America: Twenty Years of Demographic, Geographic, and Attitudinal Changes Across the Country Herald a New Progressive Majority,” Ruy Teixeira makes a strong case that “progressive arguments are in the ascendancy,” that demographic and geographic “trends should take America down a very different road than has been traveled in the last eight years. A new progressive America is on the rise.”

To further buttress his case, Teixeira has put together “a very cool interactive map that includes 7 levels of exit poll demographics and county-level vote shifts going back to 1988.”

The only slightly negative point in the report was stated: “The only circumstances that could bring back the Republicans is Obama’s failure to stem the recession.”

“Obama does have to succeed, and so far, he’s pretty much on the right track, and the Republicans are definitely not. That suggests to me that he and the Democrats will be able to solidify their majority in 2010 and 2012,” Judis said. “But again, I don’t fully understand what is going on in the world, and events could defy demography.”

Again a quote from the report:

Perhaps the strongest evidence in support of the Teixeira-Judis-Abramowitz thesis is, however, the current inability of the Republican Party to respond to market pressures. Defeat has, ironically, diminished the GOP’s capacity to respond to loss. As the elected leadership gets smaller, the strength of the most dogmatically rigid and least elastic faction has grown. On issues running the gamut from immigration to the economy, this dominant faction has yet to demonstrate “a wonderful corrective” in reaction to losing. Instead, they have retreated further inside an ideological shell that began to show cracks — Bush I in ’92, Dole in ’96, and Bush v. Gore — well over a decade ago.

The full report is available here progressive_america (pdf).

Update 15 Apr 09:

The Floundering Republicans Look for a Turnaround
from TIME.com: Top Stories

Essentially leaderless, lacking a cohesive message and fighting among themselves, Republicans appear to be in disarray, which begs the question — can things only get better from here?

Americans Most Confident in Obama on Economy
Gallup Pools

Americans are not overwhelmingly positive about either the Democratic or the Republican leaders in Congress. Still, the Democrats fare better on a comparative basis. Fifty-one percent of Americans have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in the Democratic leaders, compared to 38% in the Republican leaders.

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